u 4

296    ESSAY ON PROBABILITIeS:

must prevail before a thorough knowledge of the ad" antages they offer can get abroad, can be attained while their several administrations are unconnected, and at liberty to pursue all possible variety of plans, subject only to the certificate of an actuary that each propois not unsafe. But something more than safety is required : an equitable distribution of benefits, and a certainty of the most careful management, are as necesto the universal formation of these societies as an opinion of their safety. The government, which has within these few years been compelled, by the most decided necessity, to apply a very severe and searching remedy to an abuse of long standing, owes the labouring classes a strong expression of sympathy with the numerous cases of hardship which such a meamust create, and with the excellent conduct and temper under its operation which has pervaded the classes most immediately affected by it. It is to be recugretted that the change itself was not accompanied by acts of parliament for the encouragement and aid of societies such as those of which 1 am now speaking, in addition to those which already existed for their reguThe most determined opponent of the protecprinciple would hardly dis^{pute the policy of giving effective help to the efforts of self-support, at the mowhen the aid of the parish, which had been the resource against poverty, became only the last security against starvation. If the nation had been obliged to abandon a distant colony, in circumstances of danger and distress, there is no doubt that the settlers would have been furnished with arms, arsenals, ships, money, and all that could enable them to do whatever might be done for their own defence and support. Has similar}

help in similar circumstances been given at home? Is the labouring man, thus suddenly thrown into a position where the power and the habit of depending on himself are necessary to a degree of which his training never implied the existence, one bit nearer to the acquisition of the power or the formation of the habit, by any aid

MISCELLANEOUS REMARKS.    297

of the legislature? Have even the opponents of the measure, with their professions of benevolence, ever pressed, or even suggested, the duty of showing the labouring man, not only that by combination his class can provide for itself, but that the community which found it necessary to make a change involving him in years of uncertainty and possible hardship, was desirous that he should have that knowledge, and willing to aid him in attaining its full benefits ?

It is not too late to take the necessary steps; and any one who imagines a legislature able to feel, or to think, will see the means of addressing himself to the first faculty by such considerations as the preceding, and to the second by urging the policy of giving every class a share in the artificial system of property on which the country now depends. At present, the property of a labouring man is all tangible, and immediately at hand; it would not be a great wonder if he were found to have no clear opinion of the rights of a landlord, a fund-holder, a mortgagee, or an annuitant. But if he him-self were in possession of any of those claims which, by means of law, can be created, enforced, or transferred by virtue of the possession of a bit of paper— still more, if the support of his old age and of his sick bed were connected with this purely legal tenure of his past savings, he would then be interested in the preservation of the exsystem by the share of it which belongs to himself.
The friendly societies, numerous as they are, are by no means universally distributed ; and if they were, the smallness of their several amounts of investment must occasion the expenses of management to bear a larger proportion to the whole than would be the case if all were united. Besides which, it happens every now and then that the affairs of such a society fall into disorder from want of skill or care. The government has lent considerable assistance by allowing their investments a larger rate of interest than could elsewhere be obtained ; but this aid, independently of its being but little known by the class whom it most concerns, does not guarantee

298    ESSAY ON PROBABILITIES.

the proper use of the funds so invested. If one large office were to be established in London, having the general management of the money raised, and the reguof its distribution,_{, it would not be difficult to find persons of station * and character throughout the country who would consent to act as agents, receiving the contributions and certifying the claims. The expense of management might be borne for a few years by the public purse, and this burden might be gradually thrown on the establishment itself, No very great difficulties could arise in the formation of such an institution, and certainly none the expense of conquering which would not be trifling in comparison of the greatness of the object gained. The act which should establish this universal Friendly Society would, in two generations, become the real poor law.}

The subjects of fire and of marine insurance are founded on principles of great simplicity, though it is not easy to procure exact data for the computation of risks. As there exist no offices which are managed on the republican method of a mutual Life Insurance Company, no publication of the results of experience has been made. If every loss by fire or sea were a total loss, it would only be necessary to ask what proportion of all the houses or ships now existing is burnt or wrecked in a year or on a voyage, and the premium for insuring a house for one year, or a ship for one voyage, would immediately follow. Thus, if of all the ships which sail to the West Indies, one in a hundred is lost, the lowest premium at which an insurance could take place is one per cent., and all demanded above that pro-portion would be profit. It would not, perhaps, be very easy to ascertain this proportion with exactness, and the difficulty is increased if ships or houses be divided into different classes as to security, since the risks of each class must be ascertained separately. But

MISCELLANEOUS REMARKS.    299
the greatest obstacle to a satisfactory adjustment of risks, lies in the necessity of taking into account the chances of only partial loss, which would make the tables (if they could be procured) nearly as complicated as life tables.
On the subject of marine insurance, nothing is known to the public, as to the experience of the underwriters ; and, as it is not directly interested in the subject, it would be difficult to create any disposition to inquiry. The mercantile world, how-ever, and the underwriters themselves, have a direct interest in the dissemination of such information, for reasons which it is no pleasant task to state, both on account of their invidious character, and their obvious want of connexion with the general objects of this treatise. But the latter circumstance may, perhaps, not be disadvantageous, since the statement of the existof An imputation, coming from a quarter in which there is no interest whatever, either in the continuance or discontinuance of any present condition of things, need not excite any disposition, except that of calmly weighing whether it is necessary or not to produce a refutation.
Some years ago, I heard the following opinion stated in a mixed company, in reference to a then proposed attempt to render ships incapable of actually sinking, however much they and. their cargo might be damaged ; namely, that the mercantile world would not be inclined to patronise an invention which would make the seaman safer than the ship. Some time afterwards, I saw an article ,in a periodical journal, distinctly written for the purpose of making its readers believe that, in consequence of insurance, unsafe ships are allowed to be used, to an extent which has caused much more loss of life and property than could have been experienced if no such institution had existed. Other allusions, more or less direct, in various publications, have convinced me that one of two things must be true, either such an impression has a party who acknowledge it, or authentic

information upon the subject is so difficult to be obtained, that the one, two, or ten, who believe it, or profess to believe it, feel that no answer can be made to the assertion.
That there are men in the carrying world (if merworld be too wide a phrase for the subject) who would, from a pitiful economy, expose the seaman to risks which a little outlay might prevent, is very pos; there are men of such a spirit in every world : that there are others who would consider such conduct as little short of murder, a like analogy would equally justify us in asserting. Which class has predominated can only be absolutely known to the public by results, without which there is but general opinion upon character to aid any individual in forming his conclusion. It is in human nature that the insured should not be so careful as one who stands risk ; and it is, unfortunately, the general experience of men acting in bodies, that they are not found to be swayed by the principles which would be acknowledged and acted upon by them severally. Putting these things together, it is not wonderful that, in any case where suspicion might attach to a body of men, there should be quarters in which it does attach. It would not be wonderful, either, if the suspicion were found to be perfectly groundless ; but correct feeling would point out the desirableness of forestalling such suspicion, if possible, by the publication of all necessary information. In the present instance, it would be well that the proportion of loss, among insured vessels, should be known ; it would not be necessary to state the values of the several vessels, since the simple account of the number insured, and the number on which a claim has been paid, in various years, would be sufficient. The onus of proving that the loss on uninsured vessels, or on vessels which sailed before insurance was known, is or was greater than that on insured vessels, would lie upon those who make the charge. All persons, in the case of any body of men, must hold every thing short of abproof against them to count for nothing, when

they show themselves ready to communicate those maout of which a misdemeanor, if there be one, might be substantiated.
The offices for the insurance of fire have not given any account of the proportion of insured houses upon which claims have arisen. Their usual annual charge is, I believe, about one part in a thousand of the sum insured, upon premises of ordinary risk, such as a dwelling-house in London. There are higher rates for more hazardous insurances, constructed, I should imagine, very much from mere estimation of the risk. But the government steps in between the insurer and the insured, and imposes a duty on each policy which nearly trebles the annual payment upon it. This has been called a tax upon prudence, and in like manner the stamp duty might be called a tax upon justice. I am afraid that if nothing commendable suffered under an impost, reformation would thrive more than re-venue ; and a deficiency of means to pay the interest of the debt would be a heavier tax on prudence, justice, and every thing else, than any minister has yet contemplated. But it may not therefore follow that the particular tax in question is politic, still less that its amount is justifiable. The reason of the tax is plainly this: the moral security offered by the fire office is worth so much more than competition will allow them to ask, that the impost is one which does not fall so heavily as it would do if levied in many other quarters. Nobody can question the truth of this ; but, neverthe amount of the tax imposed by the legismust be owned to be excessive, and likely to act as a prohibition in the case of poor persons occupying small premises.
But there is a mode of overthrowing this tax, or, at least, of bringing the government to terms, to which I can see no impediment, practical or moral. It is the application of the principle of mutual insurance by a number of individuals acting in a private capacity, and not opening a public offices. Suppose a thousand Hindi-

viduals, registering their names, to appoint three men of undoubted character to receive contributions of one guinea a year each. If the subscribers be occupiers of dwelling-houses in London, there is no doubt that this sum would be amply sufficient to insure a thousand guineas to each. If three years were to elapse without a fire taking place, the subscription might be suspended, until circumstances should diminish the fund ; which, improving in the mean time at interest, would become every year more capable of meeting demands upon it. There would be no need of any legal security, if the trustees were well chosen ; and a short agreement would explain the understanding on which the parties contriAs soon as a few such clubs were formed, the inutility of imposing a tax on one particular way of effecting an object would become apparent.
It would be lucky for the preceding plan, if it were the decided opinion of lawyers that the courts of equity would not entertain any application for inquiry into the state or management of such funds ; since, in that case, the law of honour would be sufficient. It has always been found, that whenever the law of the land refuses to protect a proceeding which is fair and equal in itself, a stronger law claims jurisdiction. The parties benefited in the end would be the fire of^{fices, since such a method of resisting this excessive tax would inevitably procure ifs abolition.
There is another tax which, though not so disproportionate in its amount, is much worse in its principle than that on policies of fire insurance namely, the tax on policies of life insurance. It must be remembered, that the income of which the savings are invested in this manner, has already undergone a considerable amount of taxation. If any investment of such savings be taxed, all should be treated alike.
The abolition of lotteries happily leaves nothing to be said upon the subject of gambling, encouraged and promoted by the government ; and the recent decision of the French legislature, by which the public gaming-}

houses have been suppressed, must be a source of con-gratulation, both from the excellence of the measure itself, and the prospect of imitation which it opens, on the part of other continental powers. But, at the same time, it cannot he denied that, however desirable it may be that no community should give to gambling that appearance of sanction which is implied in regulation, the refusal of the latter is accompanied by evils, of which it is never possible to say positively that they fall short of those which would be produced by sufferance accompanied by restriction. In this country, there are the means of gambling open to every class of the community, and there can be no doubt that those who avail themselves of them are subject to imposition in a degree which could not be the case if the play were accompanied by publicity. The classes of rank and wealth have the power of forming themselves into clubs, in which illegal games are played without the possibility of detection, and in such institutions there can be no doubt, with rare and occasional instances of exception, the play is conducted at least with fairness. But no such thing can be supposed with regard to the numerous receptacles in London and other large towns, and which are believed to exist in different forms, suited to all classes of society. The difficulty of obtaining legal proof renders conviction next to impossible ; and the occurrences which sometimes take place at the sessions, prove that, even when enough of evidence is obtained to hold parties to bail, the accused can generally find the means of preventing the evidence from being forthcomto sustain the indictment. Under such circumstances, gambling in its worst form thrives in defiance of law. Nevertheless, the good consequences of discouragement are visible throughout the country. There is no people in the world among whom so little of direct gambling is found.
The infatuation which leads persons to suppose that they can ultimately win from a hank, which has chosen a game in which the chances are against the player, is