II   TABLE OF CONTENTS.

Offices' table American Experienee table. Farr's English Life tables, 1, 2 and 3. British government's tables of annuitants. 20 Offices' tables. 3o American Offices' tables. 23 German Offices' tables. Duvillard's and Desparcieux's tables. French Companies' tables. Fraternal Congress table. New British tables. New American "special risk" tables. Actuaries' table not intended to be permanent standard. Elizur Wright's statement. How far justified. Wisdom of conservative table. Actuaries' and American Experience tables standard.

FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF PROBABILITIES    Page 23

History of seience of probabilities. Almost unknown to aneients. First modern appearance. Paseal's letters. Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi. DeMoivre. Thomas Simpson. La Place. DeMorgan. Quetelet. "Choice and Chance." Certainty equals i. Illustration that chance is a fraetion. Application to future events. Illustration. A priori and a posteori methods. Latter safer. Application of same. Like conditions neeessary. Compound probabilities. Product, not sum of simple probabilities. Illustration. Last surwivor probability.

RATE-MAKING. ONE-YEAR TERM OR NATURAL PREMIUM    Page 29

Premium changing eaeh year. Assumption of uniform deaths. Error or safe side above age 10. Assumption of death-claims payable at end of year. Custom elsewhere. Error unimportant, with conservative table. One-year term net premium computed. An alternative process. A more general rule. Historically not the earliest form. Championed by Sheppard Homans. His experiment. Deseription of plan and its operation. Departures. Adverse seleetion at higher ages. Necessarily so. Probably no mortality table would answer. Yet under all plans all the aetual insurance is paid for at natural premium rates.