15

the year in perfect health at each given age, die before its expiration? This could easily be determined by the experience of companies. Of course, the sickly and moribund would be refused the privilege of continuing their insurance.

But a life insurance company must provide, at age 40, for instance, not merely for lives which have newly insured at age 40, but also for liwes which were taken on at age 39 one year ago, at we 38 two years ago, etc. These liwes will be in an average condition only. There-fore the statistics of a young company, or of any company with a very large proportion of freshly selected lives, will not be found to be a reliable guide. :after the benefit of the selection of the lives by medical examination has worn off, wluch is estimated to be in about five years, it is usually the case that the liwes are at best no better than the average lives in the general population at the same ages, and, indeed, at the higher ages they are rarely as good.

It is ewident from the foregoing that great care is requisite in determining just what statistics are to be relied upon to gauge the mortality likely to be realized on insured lives. The effects of medical selection, the possibly persistent effects of selection by means of family history and personal constitutional history, the ill effects of what is krnown as adverse: selection by persons who are conscious of diminished witality remaining in and others going out more freely, and the disinclination of men to carry insurance to an advanced age, unless believing that death is near, must all be carefully considered. Though some companies have, during extended periods, had very favorable experiences, it is not con-